According to Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could give the green light to several altcoin ETFs, including Ripple XRP, as early as September or October.
This optimism follows a recent SEC filing introducing a streamlined listing framework for crypto exchange-traded products.
Under the new standard, digital assets with at least six months of active futures trading—on platforms like Coinbase’s derivatives exchange—are eligible for ETF consideration. Balchunas pointed out that this change benefits cryptocurrencies like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin, all of which meet that criterion.
The updated listing rules come after the SEC approved in-kind creation and redemption mechanisms for crypto ETPs, which allow ETF shares to be backed and redeemed using the underlying assets instead of cash. This shift aligns crypto ETFs more closely with traditional commodity-backed funds like those tied to gold.
According to legal experts such as Bill Morgan, these developments significantly streamline the approval path and reduce operational costs, improving the odds of SEC approval.
Multiple XRP ETF applications, including those from Bitwise and Franklin Templeton, are currently pending. Though the SEC had delayed its decision on Franklin’s proposal until late 2025, the regulatory tide appears to be turning. Balchunas estimates the approval probability at 85%, a sentiment echoed by prediction markets like Polymarket, where the odds remain around 86%.
Legal uncertainties still linger. The ongoing Ripple vs. SEC case has slowed the process, but some speculate that both parties could drop their appeals before the August 15 court update—potentially removing a major obstacle.
If this timeline holds, the XRP ETF could receive final approval in October, adding momentum to the broader wave of altcoin-based ETFs expected to follow.
