Grayscale believes a crypto price rebound will happen if the US economy avoids a recession and heads to a “soft landing.”
The “Market Byte: Late Summer Storms” analysis comes after a bearish sentiment witnessed across the crypto market earlier this week that saw prices plunge to record lows. Most cryptocurrencies dropped by double-digit percentages, but prices have seen posted a healthy recovery.
Bitcoin Will Hit Record Highs Later This Year
The digital asset manager believes that the ongoing market recovery from recent lows could extend to the end of the year and pave the way for a rally to all-time highs.
“If the US economy avoids recession and remains on a path to a “soft landing” [we] expect token valuations to rebound and Bitcoin to retest its all-time high price later this year,” it said.
Conversely, the possibility of a recession spells doom for the cryptocurrency industry. However, it stated that this downside risk will be more limited compared to previous predictions.
The asset manager pointed to the changed dynamics across the crypto market. US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to post a steady net demand. Despite the ongoing market uncertainty, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $192 million in net inflows on August 8, marking the second-highest level of inflows in over two weeks.
The analysis added that the uncertain macro outlook was certainly worrying and posed a short-term risk to investors. However, policymakers will step in to prevent a deep economic downturn, with measures like money printing helping to support further gains.
Ethereum Underperforms Amid Crypto Price Rebound
The report further noted that after prices crashed on August 5 following the weaker-than-expected US employment data, Ethereum continued to underperform.
ETH has higher volatility than BTC, with its recent underperformance being more pronounced. Since the beginning of the month, ETH’s price has dropped around 1.8x as much as Bitcoin’s price, showing additional downward pressure on the largest altcoin.
The asset manager attributed the poor performance to “outsized long positioning in perpetual futures.” traders increased their positions in May after the approval of 19b-4 forms for spot Ether ETFs in anticipation of further price gains upon final approval.
Most of the long positions were liquidated during the recent downtrend. On August 5, ETH price tanked by over 20%. The sell-off has seen the price drag behind Bitcoin and altcoins like Solana.
ETH was trading at $2,672 at the time of writing after a 10% gain in 24 hours. The altcoin remains dowm by 15% in the past week.
According to trader @Ali-Charts, ETH is now headed for a bold recovery after forming a bull pennant on lower time frames. The next target for ETH is $2,820.
