Cardano (ADA) is suddenly back in the spotlight, with market optimism running high as talk of a potential ETF approval heats up.
On September 2, ADA was trading around $0.8180, up just over 2% on the day, bouncing from recent lows as investors piled in ahead of a decision from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
According to prediction market Polymarket, approval odds for a Cardano ETF now sit at 87%, a sharp jump from 60% earlier this year. If the SEC greenlights it in October, analysts say ADA could push beyond $1 with gains of 40–55% as institutional inflows roll in.
Grayscale has already updated its S-1 filing with the SEC for an ADA ETF to be listed on NYSE Arca, with Coinbase Custody as the official custodian. This filing is part of a much broader wave of institutional attention shifting toward altcoins like Cardano. For many, ADA has become one of the most likely candidates to benefit from the next round of ETF approvals.
Cardano ETF Approval Odds Surge to 87%
The Cardano ETF approval odds have increased sharply over the past week. The chances of approval jumped by 11%, reaching a high of 87%. This marks a remarkable recovery after the odds dipped to 75% in late August, down from 89% in July.
Analysts attribute this surge to Grayscale’s decision to submit an amended S-1 form with the SEC. The form, filed on August 29, is part of Grayscale’s ongoing efforts to launch a Cardano ETF. Grayscale’s persistence in pushing forward with regulatory filings signals strong momentum for the approval process.
This rebound is also a result of positive market developments surrounding Cardano. Analysts have noted that Cardano continues to see solid growth, with the cryptocurrency ranking among the top assets by weekly returns. This upward trajectory of Cardano adds confidence to the Cardano ETF approval odds.
Technical Indicators Signal Strength
On the technical side, ADA looks like it might be setting up for another leg higher. The four-hour chart shows the token bouncing from the bottom of an ascending channel, while the daily chart highlights support holding at the 100-day moving average—historically a strong rebound level. Back in August, ADA surged 43% after touching this same support zone.
Even more interesting, analysts are pointing to an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, with the head near $0.50 and the neckline just under $1.00. If ADA breaks above the neckline, the move could extend to $1.20. That said, bulls have to keep ADA above $0.70. A slip below that key level could quickly flip sentiment back toward the bearish side.
Why ETF Approval Could Be the Catalyst
The big story here, of course, is the ETF. Just as spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs drew tens of billions of dollars in inflows—$54B and $13B respectively—an ADA ETF could do the same.
Beyond simply raising liquidity, it would mark a major step in Cardano’s adoption story. With ecosystem upgrades like the upcoming Leios hard fork, partnerships with Chainlink, and privacy-focused developments such as the Midnight protocol, Cardano is stacking real-world utility alongside the hype.
The NIGHT airdrop has also brought attention to the ecosystem, reinforcing ADA’s role in the broader DeFi and Web3 push. Analysts suggest this combination of technical strength and institutional catalysts could help ADA make one of its strongest comebacks since the 2021 bull cycle.
Confidence Boost From Audit and New Use Cases
Adding to the optimism, a fresh audit led by Input Output Global (IOG) alongside McDermott Will & Schulte and BDO cleared up lingering doubts over ADA’s early voucher program.
The report found no wrongdoing and confirmed that 99.7% of all vouchers were redeemed properly. The resolution came as ADA corrected 5.7% in the past week due to whale selling, but long-term believers shrugged it off, pointing to fundamentals and institutional momentum.
Meanwhile, Cardano’s innovation streak continues. The Cardano Foundation recently revealed a partnership with Book.io to launch tokenized e-books via Decentralized Encrypted Assets (DEAs).
This move opens a new way for authors and readers to own and distribute digital content securely, showing yet again how Cardano is leaning into practical blockchain applications instead of just speculation.
