You will soon be able to bet $1 or nothing on how much Bitcoin MARA mines in a quarter. The SEC approved Cboe KPI binary options on October 13, and MARA Bitcoin production sits on the approved metric list.
The product has not launched yet. Cboe still needs clearing approval for Cboe Clear U.S., and no trading date was announced as of October 15.
Key takeaways
- MARA bitcoin KPI options pay a fixed $1 if the filed metric hits the strike, and they pay nothing if it misses.
- The SEC order covers 23 issuers and more than 100 possible metrics.
- Settlement uses the number in the SEC filing, not the number in the press release.
- A later restatement does not change a payout that already settled.
- Trading has not started, because clearing approval is still pending.
What did the SEC actually approve?
The SEC issued approval order Release 34-106659 on October 13, 2026. The order lets Cboe list binary options tied to key performance indicators, or KPIs, that firms report in SEC filings.
- What did the SEC actually approve?
- How do MARA bitcoin KPI options pay out?
- Which crypto metrics can traders bet on?
- Why has trading not launched yet?
- What did Chair Atkins say about the order?
- How did MARA shares and Bitcoin react?
- What are the risks for retail traders?
- How is this different from prediction markets?
- Frequently Asked Questions
- Conclusion
Cboe filed the proposal on June 30, 2026. The Federal Register published it for comment on July 15, and Cboe filed Amendment 1 on October 1.
Why this approval matters for Bitcoin readers
Most options pay based on a share price. These contracts pay based on a business number, such as Bitcoin produced or trading volume.
That change lets traders bet on company execution alone. A miner can miss its production target even when Bitcoin rises, and it can beat its target even when Bitcoin falls.
How do MARA bitcoin KPI options pay out?
A call pays $1 if the KPI in the filing meets or beats the strike level. A put pays $1 if the KPI falls below the strike level.
Every other result pays nothing. The contract expires worthless, and the buyer loses the price paid for it.
The fine print most reports skipped
Settlement uses the figure in a Form 8-K, 10-Q or 10-K filing. It does not use the figure in an earnings press release or a slide deck.
The contracts use cash settlement and European style exercise. Traders can exercise them only at expiry, and positions must stay fully funded.
The position cap sits at 25,000 standard contracts per expiry. One hundred binary contracts count as one standard contract for that cap.
Which crypto metrics can traders bet on?
Only three issuers on the list matter directly for crypto readers. Our table below maps their approved metrics in one place, which no other report we checked does.
| Company | Approved KPI examples | What the bet really tracks |
|---|---|---|
| MARA | BTC produced, BTC purchased, total BTC holdings, blocks won, energized hashrate | Mining execution and treasury policy |
| Coinbase | Total trading volume, transaction revenue, total revenue, diluted EPS | Retail and institutional crypto activity |
| Robinhood | Funded customers, total net revenues, Gold subscribers, average revenue per user | Retail customer growth and paid subscriptions |
MARA readers already follow these numbers closely. Our recent report on the MARA Bitcoin transfer to Galaxy Digital showed how fast traders react to treasury moves alone.
Why MARA production is a clean target
MARA reports Bitcoin produced every quarter in its filings. Traders can compare that one number with the strike without guessing about share price moves.
Production still depends on hard mining economics. Our guide on how Bitcoin mining works for beginners explains hashrate, difficulty and block rewards in plain words.
Why has trading not launched yet?
Approval of the listing rule does not start trading on its own. Cboe Clear US must still win clearing approval, and related filings must clear before Cboe lists the contracts.
No source checked on October 15 or October 16 gave a firm trading date. Any site that claims a live launch date today goes beyond the SEC order.
What Robinhood plans to offer first
Robinhood will act as the first retail broker for the product. Cboe and Robinhood said on September 30 that they plan no fees through the end of 2026.
Robinhood already pushes new crypto products to retail users fast. Our coverage of Robinhood perpetual futures in the US shows that same pattern.
What did Chair Atkins say about the order?
SEC Chair Paul Atkins issued a statement on October 13, the same day as the approval. He said the contracts will trade under exchange rules on margin, trading halts and market maker quoting.
Atkins described the move as reflecting a new spirit of harmonization, innovation, and investor choice. He also set a clear limit on what the order decides.
The CFTC line the order does not cross
Atkins stressed that the order covers only this exchange traded structure. It does not settle CFTC jurisdiction over similar KPI products that use a different structure.
Kalshi pushed back on that line in an August 5 comment letter on the SEC docket. That turf war point sits inside the order itself, and it will shape copycat products.
Coinbase faces the same split regulator world every day. Our report on how Coinbase secured a UK license for derivatives shows firms must win approvals market by market.
How did MARA shares and Bitcoin react?
MARA shares closed at $8.23 on October 14, down about 9.66 percent that day. Finnhub data showed MARA near $8.33 and Bitcoin near $82,000 at research time on October 16.
The share drop shows a hard truth. A new product tied to MARA output does not lift MARA shares by itself.
Why miners still face price pressure
Weak Bitcoin prices squeeze miner revenue fast. Our honest math on whether Bitcoin mining is still profitable in 2026 breaks down those costs.
Home miners face the same math at a smaller scale. Our walkthrough on how to mine Bitcoin at home shows the real setup costs and limits.
What are the risks for retail traders?
Binary contracts carry a simple but harsh risk. You can lose the full price you paid if the filed number misses the strike by even a small amount.
The $1 payout also caps your gain. A huge production beat pays the same $1 as a tiny beat.
Risk checklist before you trade
- Check the exact filing metric and strike before you buy.
- Never assume the press release number will settle the contract.
- Remember that a restatement after settlement does not fix a losing payout.
- Size every trade as money you can lose in full.
Common mistakes to avoid
The first mistake treats KPI options like normal share options. The share price does not settle these contracts at all.
The second mistake ignores the filing date gap. Earnings headlines land first, but the filing figure settles the bet.
For the wider price picture, read our Bitcoin price prediction for 2026 before you link a KPI bet to a Bitcoin view. Nobody knows the next filing number, and honest traders admit that upfront.
How is this different from prediction markets?
Prediction platforms let users bet on events under CFTC rules. Cboe KPI options trade as securities on an exchange under SEC rules.
That legal split changes who oversees the product. It also changes the account, margin and halt rules that protect traders.
Why the split matters for crypto
Crypto firms already live under both regulators at once. A product that wins SEC approval can still face CFTC questions when rivals copy it in a new form.
Traders should check which regulator covers a contract before they buy it. The label on the app does not answer that question alone.
Frequently Asked Questions
Have MARA bitcoin KPI options started trading yet?
No, trading has not started yet. Cboe still needs clearing approval for Cboe Clear U.S., and no trading date was announced as of October 15.
How much do MARA bitcoin KPI options pay?
A call pays a fixed $1 if the filed KPI meets or beats the strike, and a put pays $1 if it falls below. Every other result pays nothing and the contract expires worthless.
Which MARA metrics can traders bet on?
Traders can bet on BTC produced, BTC purchased, total BTC holdings, blocks won, and energized hashrate. The SEC order lists MARA under its former name Marathon Digital Holdings.
What happens if MARA restates its numbers later?
A later restatement does not change a payout that already settled. Settlement uses the figure in the SEC filing at expiry.
Does the SEC approval settle CFTC jurisdiction?
No, the order covers only this exchange traded structure. It does not settle CFTC jurisdiction over similar products that use a different structure.
Conclusion
MARA bitcoin KPI options create the first regulated way to trade a miner production number itself. They do not trade the MARA share price, and they do not trade Bitcoin directly.
The next step is simple. Watch for the Cboe Clear US clearing decision and the first official trading date before you plan any trade.
