Bitcoin could suffer a major loss this September, one that could send the big bull to lower lows. This is according to a market player whose bearish outlook is informed by the recent market correction.
In a post shared to X, Ted Pillows, the investor and crypto proponent behind the bearish price prediction, asserts that BTC’s correction is mirroring a pattern recorded during the 2nd quarter and 3rd quarter when Bitcoin recorded a major dip in 2024.
During the aforementioned time period, a 30% correction was recorded before Bitcoin’s bottoming. Although the analyst maintains uncertainty over the same pattern recurring, he expresses that Bitcoin could dip below $100,000.
Pillows explained that the drop, if witnessed, will not mark Bitcoin’s peak in this market cycle, but will function as a downward correction succeeding a potential price rally to a new all-time high.
In another post addressing BTC’s price correction shared on CryptoQuant, analyst DarkFost observed Bitcoin’s -12% drop following its surge to an ATH of $123,000, remarking that it is a “fairly normal correction so far.” Notably, in March 2024, when the asset hit its first ATH for the year, the preceding decline reached -28% and Bitcoin is yet to revisit these levels during this year’s bull market. As the analyst further asserts, most pullbacks have ranged between -20% and -25%.
The market player conclusively outlines the possibilities ahead, denoting why the current pullback might be healthy and bullish for the premier cryptocurrency.
“This current move is therefore not unusual and could continue without breaking the historical pattern.
In fact, such retracements are often healthy in bull markets, serving to reset excessive leverage in derivatives, cool down overheated sentiment, and provide new entry opportunities for long-term investors.” — CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin is valued at $110,579 during the time of this report, and has sustained 1.13% worth of gains over the last 48 hours.
Bitcoin (BTC) Bearish Seasonality
The negative technical outlook aligns with seasonal trends, which show September historically as a bearish month for bitcoin. Since 2013, BTC has delivered an average return of negative 3.49%, closing lower in eight of the past 12 September months, according to data from Coinglass.
As for bulls, overcoming the lower high of $113,510 set on Aug. 28 is crucial to negating the bearish outlook.
- Support: $105,240 (the 38.2% Fib retracement of the April-August rally), $101,366 (the 200-day SMA), $100,000.
- Resistance: $110,756 (the lower end of the Ichimoku cloud), $113,510 (the lower high), $115,938 (the 50-day SMA).
