Geoff Kendrick, an analyst at the Standard Chartered Bank, predicted that the price of Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, could rise to about $73K on US Election Day, November 5, 2024, if Donald Trump wins the election.
Kendrick further suggested that the price of Bitcoin could reach an unprecedented high of $125K by the end of the year if Republicans sweep Congress in the forthcoming election.
Bitcoin (BTC) Will Rise To $125,000 By Year End If Republicans Sweep The Election
On Thursday, October 24, 2024, the Standard Chartered Bank released a research note where the bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick, outlines the possible scenarios of how Bitcoin could respond to different election results.
In the note, Kendrick predicted that Donald Trump’s second presidency would be the best for Bitcoin.
According to Kendrick, Bitcoin would reach $73,000 on November 5, the US Election Day, if Trump wins the election. He added that there is a potential year-end high of $125K if Republicans win control of Congress.
In the note, Kendrick said, “We use daily Bitcoin vol levels and popular strike levels to estimate post-election price moves.”
He added that,
We think the BTC price is likely to be at around USD 73,000 on Election Day, 5 November.
When analyzing how Bitcoin would react to the election result, Kendrick suggested that Bitcoin could initially rise by 4% post-election, with a total gain of about 10% in the following days, provided Trump wins.
He stated,
“Assuming a Trump victory, options break-even implies a further price rise of about 4% when the presidential outcome is known, and around 10% in total within a few more days.”
He added that,
“Provided the Republicans sweep Congress, our year-end Bitcoin target level of $125K should come into view.”
What If Kamala Harris Wins?
In contrast, Kendrick stated that if VP Kamala Harris wins the presidential election, Bitcoin may witness an initial dip but could still reach $75K record levels by the end of 2024.
He said,
If Kamala Harris wins, we see Bitcoin initially trading lower but still ending 2024 at fresh highs around $75K.
This prediction, however, suggests a resilient outlook for BTC in the long run under Democratic leadership.
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $68,246.27, according to data from Tradingview.
Trump Does The Magic Better
It’s not surprising that Trump’s victory in the forthcoming US election will push Bitcoin higher than Harris’ victory because crypto enthusiasts and investors believe that Trump has more influence in the crypto industry than Harris.
For instance, Bitcoin neared $70K shortly after Trump’s bold “Never Sell Your Bitcoin” endorsement. In contrast, Bitcoin barely reacted when Harris promised to aid the crypto, AI sector at her fundraiser event in New York City.
