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BTCRepublic > News > Bitcoin News > Bitcoin Could Dive Deeper Towards $50,000 In September – Arthur Hayes
Bitcoin News

Bitcoin Could Dive Deeper Towards $50,000 In September – Arthur Hayes

Ali Raza
Last updated: October 28, 2024 4:10 pm
Ali Raza
Published: September 5, 2024
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Disclosure: BTCRepublic provides analysis and forecasts but does not offer investment advice. Our content is for informational purposes only. Please conduct your own thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment in cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Could Dive Deeper Towards $50,000 In September - Arthur Hayes
Highlights
  • Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) could dive deeper towards $50,000 in September until an intervention begins toward the month’s end.
  • This is against his previous prediction, which stated that the BTC market would be bullish in September.
  • He mentioned that the Federal Reserve and US Treasury would be responsible for this fall in Bitcoin’s price.

The co-founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, has predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) could experience more downsides, falling toward $50,000 before a rally in late September.  

Contents
BitMEX Co-founder Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin May Touch $50,000 In SeptemberArthur Hayes Would Buy The Dip

BitMEX Co-founder Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin May Touch $50,000 In September

In a blog post on September 3, Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, and Maelstrom’s CIO revealed that the price of Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, could continue to drop to as low as $50,000 before a bullish rally toward the end of September.

This announcement is opposed to Hayes’ previous prediction that the BTC market would be bullish in September. On Tuesday, Hayes wrote that his previous prediction was incorrect as BTC would continue its bearish move.

Hayes gave two possible scenarios to back his new predictions.

My theory on why Fed rate cuts aren't going to plan.

Since JAYPOW annc Sept rate cut at J-Hole, $BTC down 10%, y? I thot rate cuts were good for risk assets.

RRP pays 5.3% no T-bill under 1-yr maturity pays more. MMF will move money from T-bill -> RRP which is $ liq -ve.

Since…

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) September 2, 2024

First, he mentioned that Bitcoin is so sensitive to changes in dollar liquidity and if the Feds does not cut interest rates before the September 18 meeting, Bitcoin’s price may suffer.

He noted that the price of BTC soared to about $64,000 due to the effects of the Powell Payroll Pivot.

However, the price of BTC plunged quickly by 10% soon after. Hayes explained that the drop in value was because of the shifts in the Fed’s Reverse Repo Program (RRP) balances.

He emphasized that if the RRP is high, it will effectively remove liquidity from the market and hold it inactive on the Fed’s balance sheet to prevent reinvesting or leveraging.

According to Hayes, as soon as the RRP began to rise to about $120B, “Bitcoin swooned.”

Hayes anticipates the RRP balances to continue to rise, causing the price of Bitcoin to “slowly leak lower towards $50,000.”

Secondly, in a smart move to ensure that Kamala Harris wins the election, the US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, may likely run down the Treasury General Account (TGA) into the market. 

The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, may also be likely instructed to “cease quantitative tightening and start quantitative easing.”

All these moves would lead to an emergency money supply in the market, posing a risk to BTC.

Hayes added that “if this scenario occurs,” he expects Bitcoin’s bullish move to “begin in late September.” But before the bullishness, the price of BTC will “continue to” drop, and other cryptocurrencies could plunge deeper.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $56,731 per coin, according to Tradingview.

BTCUSD_2024-09-05_16-38-09

Arthur Hayes Would Buy The Dip

Hayes added that should the prices of Bitcoin and other altcoins fall as predicted, he would be busy buying the dip. He mentioned that he would buy “solid shitcoins” with real utility and value.

Although Hayes did not specify which altcoin he would buy, he may consider any of the altcoins he backed in the past, like PENDLE and Etherna.

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Ali About Us
ByAli Raza
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Ali Raza is a seasoned writer with over twelve years of experience specializing in cryptocurrency, blockchain, and the fintech industry. He has contributed to leading industry publications and authored hundreds of insightful articles in the fast-evolving digital asset space. His analytical skills and in-depth research give readers valuable perspectives on the industry.
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